AGP Executive Report

Diesel Export Shock for Latin America: Trump backs a possible ban on U.S. diesel exports, and analysts warn it could tighten supply and lift prices for Mexico and other import-dependent markets as fuel costs hit records. Climate Risk for Food Systems: ECLAC warns a “very strong” El Niño could cut Latin America’s GDP by over 2% in three years, pushing governments toward faster, preventive climate-resilience action. Aquaculture Upgrade in Mexico: Baja California Sur cooperative Bendito Mar becomes the first Mexican farm to join the Aquaculture Stewardship Council’s Improver Programme, aiming to raise environmental and social performance. Regional Investment Push (Guyana): Guyana’s Region 10 touts $8B+ in approved private investment since 2020, with new dairy, soy/corn, red beans, and agro-processing expanding exports. Animal Health Research (U.S.-linked): FFAR and Notre Dame fund a study repurposing an FDA-approved drug to target New World screwworm larvae, responding to livestock threats across the Southern U.S. Ag Tech for Compliance (Onside): Onside acquires Assura to expand an operational intelligence platform for agriculture, adding workflow tools for biosecurity, safety, and quality assurance.

Philippines Poultry Imports: USDA says chicken meat imports into the Philippines will rise to 780k metric tons in 2027 (+14.7%), with Brazil expected to take the biggest share thanks to price competitiveness and a reduced 5% tariff on mechanically deboned meat through 2028. Fuel Shock for Farms: Reuters reports Trump backing a diesel export ban to cut record prices, but analysts warn it won’t fix supply tightness and could worsen global disruptions—diesel is key for farm equipment and logistics. Soybeans & China Talks: Corn and wheat saw profit-taking while soybeans closed mixed as traders look ahead to a China meeting; expectations center on continued Chinese soybean buying. Argentina Ag Exports: Argentina logged a record agro-industrial export run in Jan–Aug 2026: 84.26 million tons worth USD 37.525B (+10% volume, +13% value). Venezuela–Indonesia Aquaculture: Venezuela and Indonesia plan technical visits to expand cooperation on shrimp and aquaculture under “Blue Venezuela.” Agroforestry Scale-Up: A report highlights agroforestry systems in Brazil scaling fast, attracting large private investment and BNDES-backed financing.

Peru Avocado Export Surge: Peru’s Hass avocado exports hit 505,377 metric tons in the first half of 2026, up 6% year-on-year, as MIDAGRI and SENASA push market access to 70 destinations. Chile Hazelnut Processing Boost: Chile inaugurated a southern hazelnut processing plant in Los Lagos, aiming for full capacity by 2027 and helping diversify beyond reliance on major buyers. Biotech for Yields: Syngenta unveiled EXORT, a plant microRNA-based biological tech it says can raise yields and quality at very low leaf application rates across multiple crops. El Niño Food Risk: A “firmly established” El Niño is expected to intensify into December, with drought and extreme weather threats to food security across regions including South America and Central America. Fuel Squeeze Hits Farms: Diesel prices are at record levels as Iran and Ukraine disruptions tighten global supply, with prolonged shortages likely to keep costs high into 2027—pressuring agriculture and transport. Cactus Moth Spreads: The South American cactus moth, used to control prickly pear, is now threatening native cactus populations in the southern US and Mexico, prompting new biological control efforts. Caribbean Biosecurity Update: The Cayman Islands revised dog and cat import conditions effective Oct. 1, 2026, clarifying prohibited breeds and adjusting rabies testing rules. Trade Deal Watch: The EU and Philippines announced a breakthrough toward a free trade agreement, with expectations that it will affect agriculture and investment.

Fertilizer Supply: OCP Nutricrops and Brazil’s agriculture ministry signed an MoU to deliver 3.8 million tons of fertilizer in 2026-2027, including triple super phosphate, with added soil-health and digital-ag support. Land Use & Forests: Brazil’s Atlantic Forest lost 9.7 million hectares of mature native vegetation since 1985, while agriculture expanded; MapBiomas warns recent deforestation increasingly targets regrown (secondary) areas. Climate Risk: “Super” El Niño is forecast to be among the strongest on record, with above-normal rain chances for parts of California—raising stakes for farming and water planning across the Americas. Trade & Inputs: Mexico signals it will buy more from the U.S. while reducing imports from elsewhere as USMCA talks intensify. Food Systems in the Caribbean: CARICOM’s Caribbean Week of Agriculture opens in Jamaica with a push on food security and climate-smart agriculture. Beef & Labeling Policy: IATP backs reinstating mandatory country-of-origin labeling (MCOOL) as lawmakers consider it again in the farm bill.

Trade & Investment: Guyana’s World Trade Centre Georgetown will host an Oct. 19–23 International Trade and Investment Conference aimed at helping regional firms tap markets in Brazil, Belize and St. Kitts and Nevis, with sessions on rules of origin and phytosanitary requirements. Agri-Value Chains: Guyana’s investment agency says foreign investors will get equal treatment and flags agro-processing and food security as priority opportunities, targeting a bigger share of Caribbean food imports. Coffee Sector: Cross River State (Nigeria) will hold a 2026 International Coffee Festival (Oct. 30–Nov. 1) and plans to distribute 30 million coffee seedlings over five years to expand Arabica and Robusta production. Protected Agriculture Tech: Mexico’s CIBNOR unveiled “Totem,” an open-source, solar-powered vertical aeroponic system for off-grid farming. Amazon Conservation: A new study warns tropical forest conservation spending can become a “leaky pot” if standing forests aren’t tightly protected, arguing prevention beats costly restoration. Carbon Markets: Brazil’s Mombak secured a first close of its Reforestation Fund II and signed Salesforce for carbon credit purchases tied to Amazon restoration.

Land & Rights: Global Witness says 124 land and environmental defenders were killed worldwide in 2025, with Latin America responsible for 85% of deaths—Colombia (39) and Brazil (26) worst-hit. Climate & Indigenous Governance: A commentary warns that “traditional knowledge” at climate talks can be celebrated while still being appropriated, stressing real free, prior, and informed consultation. Food Security: The UN says Haiti’s child nutrition situation is worsening fast, with the nutrition plan only ~20% funded and acute malnutrition expected to affect hundreds of thousands of children. Agribusiness & Trade: Mexico’s wind sector is set to surge, with federal planners forecasting an 84% capacity jump by 2030 as renewables expand. Agriculture & Environment: A Cuban study reports microalgae linked to ciguatoxins in Havana waters, including a first identification of Gambierdiscus australes in Cuban and Caribbean seas. Water & Ecosystems: Research highlights the Amazon as a continent-scale “rain machine,” warning that disruptions could ripple across climate and agriculture. Market Pressure: Analysts warn imported food prices could rise, adding pressure to household budgets across the region.

Amazon Climate Litigation: A new legal push in Brazil argues that illegal deforestation is a climate crime, demanding costs from land grabbers, ranchers, mining interests and agribusiness tied to forest destruction. Coffee & Cocoa Price Drop: Uganda’s agriculture ministry urged farmers to stay calm after farm-gate coffee and cocoa prices fell sharply, blaming shifting global supply expectations and domestic weather rather than collapsing demand. Bolivia Fuel Subsidy Overhaul: Bolivia’s parliament approved a $1.9B IMF loan that ends diesel subsidies, with promised support for social impacts—diesel is key for trucks, buses and farm machinery. EU Antimicrobial Rules Pressure: A UK farmers’ union says EU antimicrobial resistance rules are reshaping livestock trade, raising concerns about displaced Brazilian meat flows and urging retailer sourcing assurances. Ag Exports & Value-Add: Guyana’s Umami brand launched in Qatar’s LuLu Hypermarket, signaling growth beyond raw commodity exports into processed food. Trade Talks Watch: Mexico-U.S. T-MEC review is in focus after Trump hinted at a “big deal,” adding uncertainty for cross-border ag trade. El Niño Food Risk: Coverage highlights intensifying El Niño impacts on Central America’s food security and drought-linked livestock losses.

Caribbean Agri Diplomacy: Jamaica will host the 2026 Caribbean Week of Agriculture (Sept. 27–Oct. 2), aiming to draw 600+ participants from 36 countries under a “new F-A-C-E of Caribbean Food Systems” theme focused on food security, agribusiness, climate-smart tech and export growth. Crop Protection Deal: Corteva (CTVA) is forming a 50/50 joint venture with Belgium’s Globachem to develop and commercialize new crop protection products for Europe and the Americas, timed ahead of Corteva’s crop protection spin-off into Vylor on Oct. 1. Trade Talks, Agriculture Included: Mexico says it’s making progress in USMCA trade negotiations after a Trump call, with discussions covering agriculture alongside rules of origin and supply-chain integration. Water Security for Farming: Saint Lucia’s Northern Water Project will invest $22M+ to replace aging pipelines and improve reliable water supply for the northern belt—key for agriculture and livelihoods. Food Safety Alert: US health authorities report a lettuce-linked cyclosporiasis outbreak tied to iceberg lettuce processed in central Mexico, with deaths confirmed in Michigan amid a surge in cases.

Trade Talks: Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum says progress is being made toward a new US-Mexico trade agreement after a “very good” call with Donald Trump, with discussions touching tariffs and USMCA rules of origin, including agriculture. Energy & Food Costs: Baja California power outages are estimated to cost about $400 million a year, with knock-on impacts like spoiled food—an issue that can hit farm and food supply chains. Climate Risk for Crops: El Niño-linked extremes are expected to threaten sugarcane output in Asia, raising global price volatility that can spill into Latin American commodity markets. Local Farm Advocacy: Mexico’s Consulate in Calexico honored Líderes Campesinas with the Ohtli Award for supporting Mexican agricultural workers in California’s Imperial Valley, focusing on health, safety, and labor rights. Water & Wetlands Research: National Geographic’s Blue Boundaries program is funding wetland studies across parts of Central America and southern Mexico, including work on fertilizer runoff and ecosystem impacts.

Food Security & Climate Risk: A “Super El Niño” expected to peak in late 2026 threatens faster deterioration of food security across Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador, with conflict-disrupted shipping pushing up food, fuel and fertilizer costs, and IRC warning drought risk could drive 700,000 people in El Salvador toward emergency needs. Market & Trade Pressure: EU rules have led to a ban on some Brazilian beef and poultry imports over antibiotic compliance concerns, raising worries about existing stock and knock-on effects for UK farmers. Agrifood Health & Recalls: A jalapeño pepper recall tied to Salmonella has been upgraded to the FDA’s most serious Class I category, affecting 27 states. Bolivia Biodiversity: Scientists formally identified Leopardus tilcayo, the first new wild cat species in over a century, found in Bolivia’s Yungas cloud forests—highlighting the region’s conservation value. Brazil Policy & Public Opinion: An Ipsos survey finds most Brazilians want climate change to be a top election priority, even if it costs money.

Brazil Bioinputs Push: Rovensa Next secured R$45 million from Brazil’s FINEP to scale R&D in biocontrol, bionutrition and adjuvants, betting on Brazil’s fast-growing biologicals market (R$6.2B in 2025; 194M hectares treated). EU Beef Shock Spillover: Northern Ireland farmers warn that the EU’s suspension of Brazilian animal-origin imports could divert cheaper Brazilian beef into the UK, pressuring local prices unless standards are matched. Land Rights Violence: A Global Witness report says Brazil recorded 26 environmental activist murders in 2025 (up from 12 in 2024), with many linked to land disputes involving Indigenous peoples and family farmers. Climate Risk Lens: Coverage highlights how “Super El Niño” could intensify droughts and storms, threatening food security and farm output across the Americas. Bolivia Biodiversity Breakthrough: Scientists formally name a new cloud-forest wild cat, Leopardus tilcayo (“Tilcayo”), the first new living cat species described in over a century.

El Niño Food Crisis: Central America’s Dry Corridor is reeling as El Niño drought hits Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Costa Rica, with more than 10 million people facing a food crisis as small farmers cut meals and livestock struggles mount. Cocoa Research Push (Venezuela): Venezuela’s science and technology ministry is coordinating with INZIT and IVIC on controlled field tests of BioInzit for cocoa, including soil studies and support for peasant producers in Andean and Zulian regions. Coffee Market Slide: Coffee prices settled lower as global supply expectations improved, with Brazil’s harvest and export momentum adding pressure. Bolivia Wildlife Breakthrough: Scientists formally recognized Bolivia’s Tilcayo, a new wild cat species in the Yungas cloud forests, after genetic analysis and field observations. Brazil Farm Output: Brazil reported 2025 agricultural production of 345.4 million tons and BRL 927.2 billion in value, with soybeans driving growth. Food Safety Recall (U.S.-linked): A salmonella-linked jalapeño recall expanded to a highest-risk Class I level for multiple Tex-Mex products sold in Texas and Louisiana. Archaeology & Culture (Oaxaca/Peru): New Zapotec tomb findings in Oaxaca and elite funerary discoveries at Peru’s Chan Chan add fresh context to ancient agriculture-linked civilizations.

El Niño Impacts Food Systems: El Niño is weighing on Peru and Chile’s marine ingredients output and is also blamed for dead animals, barren fields, and hunger across Central America, with drought and food insecurity risks rising. Climate Tech for Livestock: Bill Gates-backed Breakthrough Energy Ventures is backing Rumin8’s methane-cutting feed additives for cattle, aiming to reduce emissions without eliminating livestock. Agribusiness Finance & Inputs: World Bank says it pulled in a record $112B in private capital (year ended June) to scale development finance, while commodity traders watch soybean futures on hopes for US-China trade talks and Brazil’s crop outlook. Aquaculture Feed Shock: Fishmeal and fish oil production fell as Peru and Chile were hit by El Niño, with China’s production resuming but raw-material availability still uncertain. Ag Innovation in Latin America: Bioceres Crop Solutions reported fiscal results, and Embrapa outlined measures for crop climate risks. Ecosystem Restoration: A giant anteater returned to Argentina’s Gran Chaco after passive restoration, offering a hopeful biodiversity signal for land under agricultural pressure.

El Niño Food Crisis: The UN World Food Programme warns El Niño drought could leave 16 million people in Latin America without enough food, with the Central American Dry Corridor among the hardest hit as countries declare emergencies and households face long-lasting losses. Biofuels Trade Push: The USDA unveiled a new American Biofuels Trade Outlook after record 2025 ethanol exports, aiming to expand blending in Latin America and Southeast Asia and tackle barriers in markets like Vietnam, India, Pakistan and Nigeria. Farm Bill Fuel Policy: A U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee vote advances a farm bill version that would allow year-round E15 sales, a move backed by corn and renewable fuels groups as the bill heads to a full Senate with timing uncertainty. Food Safety Tech: Chipotle is partnering with Palantir to build a food safety risk platform for restaurants, using health and incident data to spot trends and prioritize follow-ups. Climate Impacts on Food Systems: Saint Lucia’s agriculture minister says climate change is already disrupting what farmers can grow, water availability, and even fisheries—raising the risk of higher food costs. Agri-Data for Exports: Nicaragua is courting investors with incentives for agriculture and livestock, while a separate Caribbean initiative is using a data protection agreement to help farmers sell overseas.

Environmental Activism Under Threat: Global Witness reports 124 land and environmental defenders killed in 2025, with Latin America accounting for 85% of the deaths—Colombia (39) and Brazil (26) lead, often tied to land disputes, illegal mining, and coca expansion. Trade Rules & Rice Politics: A Dominican economist warns that the DR-CAFTA rice tariff dispute could undermine the country’s OECD bid, arguing domestic negotiating failures—not foreign pressure—are driving the credibility test. Seed Systems Criminalized: UN experts say laws that punish farmers for saving and exchanging seed threaten food security, especially for women who manage local varieties. Water Stress in the Region: A new water-stress outlook flags severe pressure ahead for Central America, where El Niño is already choking harvests and cattle. Aquaculture Tech in Chile: Ace Aquatec appoints Sebastián Uribe as digital operations lead to scale feeding and monitoring tools for Latin American salmon producers. Food Prices & Supply Strain: Belize’s vegetable price spike is linked to peso swings, reduced production, and climate-driven supply issues. Coffee Market Watch: Coffee prices ease on improved growing conditions in Brazil and Vietnam.

Land & Rights: A new Global Witness report says 105 land and environmental defenders were killed in Latin America in 2025—85% of the global total—led by Colombia (39) and Brazil (26), underscoring ongoing violence tied to mining, logging and agribusiness. Food Prices & Inputs: Belizean vendors say produce costs are soaring as the local currency weakens and climate impacts cut yields, with BMDC citing higher import prices from Mexico and hotter conditions hurting freshness. Water for Farms: Mexico agreed to cut Colorado River water use by 500,000 acre-feet over 2027–2028 under Minute 334, adding pressure on irrigation-dependent areas. Circular Ag Innovation: Venezuela’s IVIC is developing cattle dietary supplements using agro-industrial waste biochar to support cellulose- and lignin-digesting microbes, aiming to boost digestion and recycle manure back into soils. Ag Tech & Trade: Mexico seized a suspected crypto mining operation in Puebla, highlighting how digital infrastructure is being used alongside illicit finance—an indirect risk for rural supply chains.