AGP Executive Report

USMCA Uncertainty for Farmers: Trump says the USMCA with Mexico and Canada could expire, throwing a fresh curveball into North American trade talks and raising alarms for agriculture groups that rely on stable market access. Biosecurity Shock—Screwworm: Texas officials issued a disaster declaration after New World screwworm was found in two newborn calves, with cattle movement restrictions and a long-term sterile-fly production timeline that could keep beef prices under pressure. Brazil Beef Exports: Brazil’s beef exports kept climbing in May, with higher volumes and value led by China, as exporters rush sales ahead of quota-related tariffs. Climate Stress on Food Work: A study highlights how heat stress can cut farm labor productivity and incomes, adding pressure to food security as extreme heat intensifies across vulnerable regions. Brazil Carbon Wetlands: Research points to hidden Cerrado wetlands storing large amounts of long-term carbon, underscoring the climate value of protecting lesser-known ecosystems. Energy/Fertilizer/Trade Fallout: Analysts warn that the US-Iran conflict is turning into a broader energy, logistics, fertilizer and food shock that could weigh on global growth through 2027. Innovation for the Bioeconomy: REDBIO Colombia 2025 in Medellin is being framed as a regional biotech and bioeconomy catalyst, linking labs, startups and real-world agricultural and health challenges.

Amazon Deforestation Watch: Brazil’s INPE DETER alerts show Amazon clearing fell to 370 sq km in May, down 61% from May 2025, with 3,182 sq km over the past 12 months—its lowest in the system’s record since 2014—though scientists warn a strong El Niño could still raise drought, fire, and degradation risks. Cattle Health Shock: The U.S. screwworm response is still more than a year away, as sterile-fly production won’t be fully operational until Nov. 2027, while cases have been detected in Texas and drought plus high costs have already pushed the herd to a 75-year low. Regional Food Infrastructure: Guyana’s Regional Food Hub near Yarrowkabra is about 50% complete and should finish by year-end, with Blumberg Grain set to install cold storage and systems to cut post-harvest losses by up to 30% and boost exports to CARICOM. Ag Cooperation Diplomacy: Iran and Russia discussed expanding agricultural trade, food security, investment, and technology exchange at the BRICS Agriculture Ministers’ meeting in Indore. Venezuela Sowing Push: Portuguesa state leaders backed the Winter 2026 sowing cycle for corn, rice, and sugarcane, reinforcing its role as Venezuela’s cereal granary ahead of the rainy season. Caribbean Farming Awards: Nominations are open for CARICOM Farmer of the Year and Young Farmer of the Year awards, due by end of June. Long COVID Support for Farmworkers: Community leaders and physicians are helping Latino farmworkers navigate long COVID impacts, with UW research citing 41.2% of agricultural workers diagnosed with COVID-19 experiencing long COVID.

Screwworm Alert (Texas): USDA confirmed New World screwworm cases in South Texas cattle, with officials reporting six cases by June 11—raising fears for livestock health and beef prices already at record levels. Climate Shock (El Niño): Federal forecasters say El Niño is officially underway, with warnings it could be among the costliest on record, disrupting agriculture and water systems; California is bracing for a wetter, stormier winter. Regional Ag Policy (BRICS): BRICS agriculture ministers adopted the Indore Declaration, backing farmers’ seed rights, digital agriculture, and agroecology/regenerative farming, while rejecting unilateral trade barriers that threaten food security. Cocoa & Farm Support (Venezuela/Mexico): Venezuela’s Miranda pushes a new cocoa development law to boost productivity, while Mexico’s “Sembrando Vida” expands in El Salvador to support 400 producers with tech packages and tools. Caribbean Resilience (Jamaica): Jamaica’s post-hurricane recovery funding—channeled through NaRRA—could lift GDP by more than 20%, aiming to speed project delivery and reduce delays.

EU–Brazil Trade: The EU is rejecting Brazil’s bid to delay new antibiotic rules for beef, raising fresh compliance worries for exporters ahead of September 3. Child Labor & Rural Livelihoods (Ecuador): A study says 279,000 children and teens are working in Ecuador—often in streets, markets, and agricultural areas—linked to poverty and weak enforcement. Drought Preparedness (Caribbean): St. Kitts and Nevis’ emergency agency is urging year-round readiness as El Niño-linked drought persists and hurricane forecasts stay uncertain. El Niño Shockwaves: The UN and WMO are calling for global preparation for extreme weather as El Niño probabilities climb, with knock-on risks for agriculture, water, and power. Cocoa Sector Push (Venezuela): Venezuela’s government is promoting cocoa productivity through a new development and promotion law, including a single agricultural “box office” for the sector. Coffee Market Watch (Brazil): Coffee prices rose on fears persistent rain could delay Brazil’s harvest, with El Niño also flagged as a risk for future crop timing. Security & Rural Impact (Venezuela): An investigation into “Operation Zaraza” describes airstrikes and abuses tied to a crackdown on the Tren del Llano gang, with rural communities hit hardest.

USMCA Uncertainty: Trump says the US-Mexico-Canada trade pact could expire in 2036, injecting fresh risk into North American farm planning ahead of renewal talks. Animal Health & Biosecurity: The New World screwworm has been confirmed in Texas after decades, prompting heightened monitoring across livestock states and new USDA rules affecting animal movement, including pets. Climate Shock for Crops: NOAA confirms El Niño is underway and could be among the strongest on record; while parts of the world face drought and heat, Argentina’s specialists expect more favorable rainfall for crops later in 2026. Caribbean Resilience & Food Systems: Dominica’s DOMCREP project (US$70.2M) will back climate-smart irrigation, greenhouses, and support for farmers and agro-processors to strengthen food security. Trade & Market Signals: Mexico expanded fishing refuge zones to aid recovery of key marine species, while Mexico’s tomato supply deal and broader US corn export push underscore how policy shifts ripple through farm incomes. Brazil Farm Finance Push: Brazil’s agribusiness caucus is pushing to fast-track rural debt relief credit lines ahead of the 2026/27 crop plan.

Fertilizer Supply Shock: Morocco’s OCP says it will ramp sulphur-based fertilizer production back to full capacity by end-June 2026 after a Hormuz-linked global sulphur crunch sent prices soaring, a move that could ease pressure on phosphate fertilizer availability for farmers across Latin America. Trade Uncertainty for Ag: Trump again raised the possibility of letting USMCA expire, keeping North American farm groups on edge about market access and food supply chains. Beef Prices Watch: FAO’s May food price data shows beef prices hitting new highs, with Brazil and other major exporters in focus—important for regional feedlots and retailers. Climate Risk for Crops: NOAA says El Niño conditions have formed and could intensify toward historic levels, raising the odds of droughts and floods that can disrupt planting and yields. Regional Farm Policy: BRICS agriculture ministers met in Indore to prioritize food security and smallholder welfare, with women and youth participation on the agenda. Pest Threat: New World screwworm response escalated in Texas, with spillover risks for cattle movement and cross-border livestock trade.

USMCA Uncertainty for Farmers: Trump again floated letting the USMCA expire, alarming U.S. farm groups that rely on Canada and Mexico for soybean and other exports. Climate Shock for Crops: NOAA confirmed El Niño is underway and could become one of the strongest on record, raising odds of heat, drought, floods, and wildfire stress that can hit planting and yields across the Americas. Biofuels vs. Food Prices: Rising oil prices tied to the Iran conflict are expected to boost biofuel demand, tightening the link between fuel and food markets and worsening food-cost pressure. Amazon Rail Legal Push: Brazil’s Supreme Court cleared a path for the Ferrogrão grain railway by removing land from Jamanxim National Park, renewing concerns about Indigenous territories and habitat loss. Aquaculture Cuts in Chile: AKVA is expanding low-emission salmon farming in Chile with solar-powered cages and vessels. Livestock Alarm: New World screwworm detections in Texas are reshaping cattle movement rules and raising beef-supply worries. Market Signals: USDA’s June WASDE made limited changes to corn, soy, and wheat balance sheets, while global wheat/Argentina-Brazil production notes stayed in focus.

El Niño Watch: NOAA says El Niño could develop by July 2026 and bring a “double whammy” of higher tides and flooding risk for coastal communities, adding pressure to already stressed food-growing regions. Fertilizer & Biofuels: U.S. urea prices have slid back toward pre-conflict levels after the Strait of Hormuz disruption, but analysts warn El Niño and lingering input volatility could keep food inflation risks elevated; at the same time, rising oil prices are boosting biofuel demand and could intensify the food-vs-fuel squeeze. New World Screwworm in Texas: USDA confirmed five New World screwworm cases in Texas as of June 10, with officials urging vigilance and tighter movement rules to protect cattle and other warm-blooded animals. Uruguay–China Pasture Push: Uruguay signed an agreement with a Chinese university to create a Joint Pasture Agriculture Laboratory aimed at genetic improvement and biotechnology for pasture and forage. Venezuela Coffee Law: Venezuela’s parliament approved a Coffee Promotion and Promotion Act to protect producers, strengthen the production chain, and curb smuggling via certification and origin designations. Guyana Sugar Costs: Guyana’s agriculture minister said first-crop 2025 production cost was about US$1.09 per pound, with total output reported across key estates. USMCA Uncertainty: Trump said he may not renew USMCA, while U.S. lawmakers argue it’s been especially good for agriculture—raising trade-policy uncertainty for the region’s farm sector. Brazil Phosphate Ramp-Up: Aguia Resources commissioned its Pampafós phosphate plant in Rio Grande do Sul and flagged a potential 30% production uptick, supporting domestic fertilizer supply.

New World screwworm hits Texas: USDA confirmed a second case in Zavala County, with Gov. Greg Abbott expanding the disaster response and ramping sterile fly releases and movement control zones—raising fresh alarm for cattle producers and wildlife. Beef and feed ripple effects: Beef prices hit a record as the smaller U.S. herd lingers; analysts say corn demand could shift toward feed/residual use while border closures keep Mexico cattle off U.S. routes. USMCA uncertainty for farmers: Ag coalitions urged lawmakers to improve and extend USMCA as Trump signals doubts about renewal, warning that tariff-free access and science-based rules matter most amid trade and input-price volatility. Fertilizer relief, El Niño risk: U.S. urea prices have fallen back near pre-conflict levels, but drought and El Niño threats keep food inflation risk on the table. Caribbean climate-smart farming: St. Kitts’ Greenhouse Village Initiative is moving from scattered plots to a centralized, training-backed model to better withstand hurricane damage.

Animal Health Alert: USDA confirmed the New World screwworm in a Texas calf, reviving a parasite eradicated from the U.S. in the 1960s and prompting heightened monitoring and movement restrictions across livestock supply chains. Regional Innovation: Guyana and Brazil launched a Caribbean agricultural science, technology and innovation hub with EMBRAPA and IICA to speed up tropical ag solutions and strengthen food security. Livestock Policy: South Africa’s agriculture committee reported new Foot-and-Mouth Disease vaccine allocations and approvals, including doses sourced from Argentina and Turkey, alongside expanded diagnostic capacity. Cattle Traceability: Colombia advanced cattle tracking rules aimed at keeping deforestation-linked beef out of supply chains. Dairy Genetics Push: Jamaica’s dairy sector urged faster action to improve herd genetics, warning delays keep the island dependent on imported milk powder. Climate Risk Watch: Coverage highlighted El Niño’s potential to disrupt monsoon rains and raise food and farm risks across the region.

New World screwworm alert (Texas): U.S. officials confirmed a decades-old return of the flesh-eating parasite in a Texas calf, prompting heightened vigilance across states and renewed pressure to speed sterile-fly production to protect the $113B cattle industry. Beef traceability (Colombia): Colombia passed a landmark cattle traceability law aimed at keeping beef tied to illegally deforested land out of supply chains, aligning with EU-style scrutiny. Drought stress (Costa Rica): Guanacaste faces one of its worst droughts as rain fails to arrive, squeezing pastures, livestock water, and farm costs while also hitting tourism and households. Cattle-farm governance (Bolivia): Farmers and coca growers threatened actions near military facilities over a new emergency-states law, raising uncertainty for rural supply and security. Regional ag cooperation (Caribbean): A high-level delegation visited CARDI to deepen Caribbean food-security and innovation ties, showcasing climate-resilient crops and pilot outputs. Coffee market (Brazil): Coffee prices slid on expectations of a bumper Brazil crop, adding pressure to producer margins. Fertilizer watch (U.S. + global): Urea prices eased back toward pre-crisis levels in the U.S., but drought and broader food-price risks remain. Trade + inputs (Mexico/Caribbean angle): Ongoing policy and market shifts continue to shape how Latin American producers manage costs, access, and risk.

New World screwworm alert (Texas): U.S. officials confirmed the flesh-eating parasite in a calf in Zavala County, Texas, prompting tighter animal monitoring and renewed emergency response efforts across the region. Cross-border livestock risk: The detection is already disrupting North American beef supply chains, with USDA and state agencies urging ranchers and pet owners to watch for wounds and seek treatment fast. USDA response ramp-up: A USDA lab team from Ames has moved to Texas to speed testing, while officials expand preparedness along the U.S.-Mexico border. BRICS agriculture push (Indore): BRICS countries opened a five-day agriculture meeting focused on food security, farmer welfare, climate-smart farming, trade, and digital agriculture, with a joint declaration expected after minister talks. Ag innovation in Venezuela: Venezuelan researchers are developing controlled-release nanofertilizers for Zulia to improve agricultural output while reducing nutrient loss. Ecuador heritage under pressure: Ecuadorian artisans in Guangopolo say traditional horsehair sieve-making is fading as cheaper plastics replace everyday use.

New World screwworm alert: The USDA confirmed new flesh-eating screwworm cases in Texas—a calf in La Salle County and a dog in Andrews County—bringing detections to four and triggering tighter animal movement rules, with Canada imposing emergency livestock import restrictions from Texas. Regional farm risk: Texas Governor Greg Abbott activated an “escalated response” as officials warn ranchers to monitor wounds and newborns closely, fearing knock-on effects for beef supply if the pest spreads. Fertilizer pressure in Brazil: Rising fertilizer prices tied to global energy disruptions are squeezing Brazilian farmers’ margins and forcing difficult input decisions ahead of planting. Climate shock watch: El Niño forecasts are strengthening, raising concerns for hotter, more disruptive weather that could hit food production and farm planning across the region. Trade and inputs: FAO urged countries to keep agricultural input trade open and use fertilizer efficiently as global production risks mount.

Livestock Health Alert: The U.S. confirmed a New World screwworm case in a Texas calf, triggering quarantine and movement restrictions around Zavala County as officials try to stop the flesh-eating parasite from spreading—raising fears for herd sizes and beef supply even as authorities say the meat supply remains safe. Market Ripple: Feeder cattle futures jumped to a two-week high on screwworm worries, with traders watching whether Mexican cattle imports stay suspended and how demand responds to tighter supplies. Climate & Food Security: A new analysis warns that “breadbasket” regions face a higher risk of simultaneous crop stress as climate change intensifies El Niño-linked heat and drought, threatening staples and global food prices. Ag Innovation: Nestlé is advancing climate-resilient coffee by developing high-yielding robusta varieties with partners, aiming to help farmers adapt as arabica faces rising risks. Nature Restoration: Paraguay’s Itaipu Preserva Project is restoring the Atlantic Forest by planting millions of native and fruit-bearing trees, rebuilding habitat corridors that support biodiversity and long-term ecosystem health.

Irrigation Investment in Mexico: Netafim opened its biggest manufacturing plant to date in Hermosillo, a 30,000-square-meter facility supplying drip irrigation for farmers across North and Central America and creating about 200 direct jobs. Livestock Biosecurity Shock: The New World screwworm is back in the U.S., with a second confirmed case in Texas (Zavala County) after the first near the Mexico border, triggering expanded disaster response, sterile-fly efforts, and tighter animal movement rules that could ripple into beef supply and prices. Regional Trade Pressure: Canada’s farmers are pushing back on Mercosur talks, warning that any deal could expand South American beef access and squeeze Canadian cattle producers. Bolivia Protest Disruption: Bolivia’s legislature passed a law allowing President Rodrigo Paz to deploy the military to clear roadblocks, after weeks of blockades that have disrupted food and medicine flows—an issue hitting the country’s agricultural breadbasket regions. Climate Risk for Brazil’s Cerrado: Indigenous communities in Brazil’s Cerrado are coordinating controlled burns with environmental agencies to reduce wildfire risk as El Niño-linked drought threatens the dry season.

Livestock Health Alert: The U.S. USDA confirmed New World screwworm in Texas for the first time in decades, with a second case found days later in Zavala County near the Mexico border—prompting quarantine zones, movement controls, and heightened surveillance as officials stress it’s an animal health issue, not a food-safety risk. Cross-Border Trade Impact: Canada moved to temporarily ban Texas livestock imports to prevent spread, while the outbreak is already reshaping regional cattle logistics and raising beef supply concerns. Food Prices Watch: FAO reported May food commodity prices were broadly stable, with cereal and wheat prices rising on weather and input-cost risks, while sugar and vegetable oils eased. Climate Risk for Farms: IICA warned that an extreme El Niño plus fertilizer pressures could hit yields and livestock productivity unevenly across Latin America and the Caribbean, with higher food-price volatility likely. Local Food Security: Venezuela’s agriculture ministry is pushing the Community Sowing Plan with communes to boost production of staple foods amid sanctions. Environment & Ecosystems: Argentina’s environmental prosecutors network renewed efforts to strengthen specialized justice and ecosystem protection.