AGP Executive Report

Guyana’s Food Supply: Onion cultivation is expanding across four regions as the country targets self-sufficiency by year-end. Meanwhile, Taylor Farms says it will not buy Mexican lettuce during the rainy season, a potential setback for growers. Climate and Crops: El Niño is expected to intensify across the Americas, with drought already wilting Central American crops and increasing disease pressure on Brazil’s onion harvest. Coffee and Exports: Colombia’s 2025/26 coffee production is forecast to fall 15% to 12.65 million bags. Mexico has also made an agro-export labor certificate mandatory for avocado shipments. Land and Water: Brazil’s Cerrado has lost 13.9 million hectares of riverbank vegetation, adding pressure to ecosystems vital to farming and water supplies.

Food Safety: Taylor Farms says it will stop selling U.S. and Canadian iceberg lettuce harvested or processed in Mexico during the May–August rainy season from 2027, after a cyclospora outbreak sickened as many as 12,000 people. Crop Diversification: Guyana is targeting onion self-sufficiency by year-end, expanding cultivation across four regions and aiming for about 500 acres. Land and Water: Brazil’s Cerrado lost 13.9 million hectares of native vegetation along waterways from 1985 to 2025, raising concerns about erosion, water quality and drought resilience. Coffee: Colombia’s 2025/26 coffee production fell 15% to 12.65 million bags. Export Rules: Mexico has made an agro-export labor certificate mandatory for avocado shipments, tightening requirements for a key crop. Climate Risks: El Niño is already affecting Colombia, while forecasts warn the developing cycle could bring drought and flooding that threaten crops across the Americas.

Climate Risks: El Niño is expected to intensify across Latin America, bringing heavy rain and record ocean temperatures that could disrupt crops and water supplies, especially for vulnerable rural communities. Plant Health: Antigua and Barbuda warns that the Mediterranean fruit fly could damage mangoes, papayas, tomatoes and other crops, urging travelers and importers to keep fresh produce from entering. Coffee: Colombia’s 2025/26 production fell 15% to 12.65 million bags. Export Rules: Mexico has made its Agro-Export Labor Certificate mandatory for avocado shipments. Food Safety: The FDA found Cyclospora at a Mexico lettuce operation; Taylor Farms is changing output at the site ahead of next season. Produce Trade: Peru’s fruit and vegetable exports rose 14.9% to $3.9 billion, while Brazil’s grape exports increased 5.7% in the third quarter.

Coffee: Colombia’s 2025/26 coffee production fell 15% to 12.65 million bags, with exports down 12%; a September production rebound was not enough to make up the shortfall. Land and Forests: Paraguay met a UN deadline to update plans for the Chaco Biosphere Reserve, where farming and cattle ranching have driven extensive deforestation and threaten Indigenous communities. In Brazil, ranchers’ roadblock has delayed demarcation of Juruna land in Pará. Farm Practices: Tobago growers received training on fertilizer use, with agronomists stressing that better timing can lift yields and limit nutrient losses. Produce Trade: Mexican avocado exporters face tighter shipment rules as shipment values have fallen 44.5%. Brazilian grape exports, meanwhile, rose 5.7% in the third quarter.

Brazil’s Grain Outlook: The presidential runoff is becoming a market story: Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round lead lifted Brazil’s currency and stocks, with currency swings potentially shifting the country’s edge in grain exports. Mexico’s Coffee Investment: Nestlé plans to double its Mexico investment to $2 billion, including 70,000 coffee plants and support for 2,000 Veracruz growers from 2028 to 2030. Water Stress: Mexicali Valley farmers face steep cuts to Colorado River supplies and transfers to coastal cities; irrigation allocations could fall to 85 liters per second per hectare, threatening winter crops. Fertilizer Capacity: Saipem and Techint will assess a proposed Argentine urea plant designed to produce 4,450 tonnes a day, expanding domestic fertilizer supply. Climate Risks: El Niño is forecast to intensify toward a December peak, adding pressure to Latin American food security; Ecuador is among the region’s most vulnerable economies. Food Safety: Guyana’s Agriculture Ministry denies claims that imported chicken is contaminated, saying shipments are inspected before sale.

Guyana Fisheries: An FAO programme wrapping up in Guyana has strengthened the Atlantic seabob shrimp chain through better stock management, food safety and support for fishing cooperatives. Shrimp Markets: Ecuador, the world’s top shrimp exporter, is seeking new buyers as production expands rapidly and the industry looks to grow capacity. Brazil Crops: Heavy rain threatens apple flowering in southern Brazil, while El Niño-related rain is raising disease pressure on onion crops. Soybean Competition: U.S. farmers are watching Brazil’s cost advantage and a potentially huge crop, which could weigh on export competitiveness in 2027; El Niño may disrupt planting and yields. Trade Tensions: French farmers protested the EU-Mercosur pact, fearing competition from lower-cost beef, poultry and sugar imports from Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay.

El Niño Risks: The UN warns the climate pattern could become one of the strongest since 1950, threatening Latin American food supplies. Colombia is already feeling the effects, while drought is wilting Central American crops and heavy rains have damaged Argentina’s farm belt. Heat is also stressing Tobago’s livestock. Brazilian Exports: Brazil’s beef export chief expects a return to the EU market within months, while Chinese demand is boosting the country’s sorghum exports. Caribbean Food Supply: Guyana says it accounts for more than 56% of reported CARICOM agricultural output, as regional leaders push to strengthen local production and reduce food import dependence.

Climate Pressure: El Niño is already hurting Colombian agriculture, while heavy rains are increasing disease pressure on Brazil’s onion crop and drought is wilting Central American fields. Export Growth: Chinese demand is opening a new market for Brazilian sorghum; the country could ship up to 2 million tonnes this year. Peru’s fruit and vegetable exports rose 14.9% to US$3.9 billion. Regional Food Security: Guyana is expanding farm extension and fruit-fly surveillance, as regional leaders highlight its contribution to Caribbean food production. Research & Conservation: Brazil’s Embrapa Florestas has become the FAO’s first reference center for planted forests. A new WWF report also warns that wildlife populations in Latin America and the Caribbean have plunged 95% since 1970, calling for changes to food production to slow nature loss.

Climate & Crops: El Niño-driven drought is wilting Central American crops, with Guatemala facing its worst water year in decades. Forecasts warn of mounting risks to harvests and food security. Farm Costs: Diesel prices are surging just as farmers need fuel for fieldwork and harvest, adding pressure to already tight margins across agricultural regions. Brazil’s Amazon: Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round lead over Lula has raised concern over the future of forest and Indigenous protections, with major implications for land use ahead of the runoff. Farm Support: Guyana’s NAREI is receiving a $60 million vehicle fleet to strengthen extension services and fruit-fly surveillance. Trade & Exports: Peru’s fruit and vegetable exports rose 14.9% to US$3.9 billion. Mexico is tightening avocado export rules, including labor certification and restrictions on fruit from orchards in deforested areas.

Trade & logistics: International grain buyers from Mexico, Colombia, Nicaragua, Panama, Peru and Honduras toured Illinois’ Melvin Price Locks and Dam and other ag sites to strengthen export relationships, with the Illinois Department of Agriculture pitching the state’s transport network as a reliable partner for global sales. Pest control & extension: Guyana’s NAREI received about G$60M in pickups, ATVs and motorcycles to expand extension services and surveillance against the Carambola Fruit Fly, funded via the CARICOM Development Fund. Climate risk for food systems: The World Bank projects Latin America and the Caribbean to grow 2.2% in 2026 but flags El Niño risks to agriculture, hydropower, food prices and energy costs. Weather watch: Tropical Depression Nine is forecast to intensify toward the Atlantic’s first hurricane, raising landfall concerns for parts of the U.S. Food waste & methane: A UN-backed push highlights how reducing discarded food can cut methane emissions and improve food security.

Rice Trade Reset (DR): The Dominican Republic reversed course on U.S. rice tariffs, repealing a 20% ad-valorem levy via Decree 635-26 and ending a dispute that had threatened DR-CAFTA compliance and domestic growers’ protection. Cyclospora Food Safety (Mexico/US): The U.S. FDA closed its cyclospora investigation tied to Taylor Farms iceberg lettuce, confirming Cyclospora in Mexico’s processing wastewater tank and a grower drainage ditch, while still saying it can’t pinpoint exactly how contamination occurred. El Niño Food Risk: Coverage warns that a “super” El Niño could intensify drought and food insecurity across Latin America, with UNICEF flagging major risks for children in the region. Agri-Exports Momentum (Spain): Spain’s Region of Murcia reported 42% of the fruit and vegetable export growth, with exports up 10% to €2.689B in the first seven months. Cocoa Volatility: Cocoa prices remain high and volatile as climate pressures threaten long-term yields, while manufacturers struggle with rising costs. Conservation & Land Use: A Philippines piece frames deforestation as a food-systems crisis and calls for scaled reforestation plus shifts toward less chemical-intensive farming. Connectivity for Rural Brazil: FLOLIVE and Skylo announced integrated cellular + satellite IoT connectivity to extend coverage across Brazil’s remote areas.

Diesel Pressure on Farms: Wisconsin dairy producer George Polzin says soaring diesel costs are crushing margins as milk prices lag, with input costs adding tens of thousands of dollars a year. Beef Tariffs, Herd Reality: A Michigan cattle rancher says eased U.S. beef tariffs may only be temporary, arguing real relief needs rebuilding the cattle herd amid high input costs. Phosphate Turns Geopolitical: A new focus on phosphate highlights how fertilizer supply shocks and Middle East disruptions can ripple into global food production. Cargill Earnings Slide: Cargill’s profit fell sharply as higher cattle costs hit beef while cocoa losses weighed on results, even as soy benefited. El Niño Climate Stress: Venezuelan officials warn El Niño and climate change are shifting planting and animal breeding cycles, with broader electricity strain across the region. Brazil Deforestation Politics: Far-right gains in Brazil’s election are tied to deforestation hotspots, raising alarms from Indigenous and environmental groups about future protections. Food Safety Crackdown: The FDA rolled out a 10-point plan to prevent Cyclospora outbreaks after nearly 20,000 U.S. cases linked to contaminated produce, including Mexico-linked lettuce. Caribbean Food-Agriculture Links: Barbados agriculture officials visited Venezuela to deepen cooperation on food and agriculture security, logistics, and education.

El Niño and food prices: A “Godzilla/Super El Niño” is intensifying drought and heat risks across regions, with knock-on effects for crops and global grocery costs, while the FAO Food Price Index climbed to near a four-year high on sugar and wheat strength. Argentina food trade push: Argentina is seeking a bigger role in India’s food supply chain, leveraging its edible-oil leadership and warning that fertilizer and grain disruptions could trigger a “major food crisis.” Brazil agribulk logistics deal: AD Ports Group completed its $835m acquisition of Brazil’s CLI, adding terminals at Santos and Itaqui to boost agri-bulk exports and create new trade routes. Wheat improvement drive: UK crop group Niab will lead an international program to speed winter wheat pre-breeding and trait validation. Food safety watch: The U.S. FDA linked a major Cyclospora outbreak to Mexico’s Taylor Farms lettuce operation, keeping pressure on traceability and farm-to-shelf controls. Rural politics and labor pressures: An AP-KFF poll finds rural voters split on Trump’s immigration crackdown—some see benefits, others say it harms local economies that rely on immigrant labor.

Climate & Food Security: Super El Niño is intensifying across Latin America, with reports warning of major heat and health impacts and mounting pressure on key supply chains. Extreme Weather on Farms: Heavy rains are threatening Costa Rica’s cacao harvest, while drought and heat stress elsewhere are already draining farm cash and cutting yields. Agriculture Resilience & Policy: France’s farm climate adaptation funding is under strain as losses mount, highlighting how quickly resilience plans can fall behind. Water & Rural Livelihoods: Mexicali farmers are pushing for financial relief amid major Colorado River water cuts. Caribbean Ag Education: Jamaica 4-H Clubs will build modern school gardens at four infant schools to spark early interest in agriculture. Digital Farming Push: A new market outlook points to rapid growth in IoT precision agriculture sensors, reflecting rising adoption of smarter farm management. Trade & Market Access: Western Cape exports to the U.S. fell 16.2% in 2025 as tariffs and uncertainty around preferential access weigh on agricultural exporters.

Food Safety & Trade: Mexico’s Health Ministry says the FDA cyclospora probe into a lettuce-linked outbreak tied to Taylor Farms has concluded, but it “did not conclusively identify” the contamination source—leaving supply-chain questions open. Livestock & Antimicrobials: A new Argentinian study found veterinary drug residues across 27 beef feedlots, with monensin detected in all sites and other antimicrobials showing up even without treatment records, raising antimicrobial-resistance concerns. Water & Crops: Mexicali Valley farmers plan to seek compensation as Colorado River cuts force mandatory fallowing, with local leaders saying Mexico’s water officials signal no relief will be provided. Global Prices: FAO reports global food prices rose in September toward a four-year high, driven by grain and sugar increases amid Black Sea/Strait of Hormuz disruptions and climate shocks. Agri-Exports: Guyana shipped its first UMAMI-manufactured container to Qatar, signaling more agro-processing exports as Agriculture Month 2026 ramps up.

Food Safety: Mexico’s Health Ministry said the FDA cyclospora probe tied to Taylor Farms shredded iceberg lettuce did not conclusively prove the contamination source, even as FDA reported a strong link and positive environmental samples; the outbreak sickened 12,883 people across 21 states. Agricultural Outlook: A Purdue-CME vs. Argentina Austral Ag farmer survey found U.S. growers more pessimistic about the next five years (57% expect bad times) while Argentina farmers were far more upbeat (53% expect good times), reflecting policy and market differences. Coffee Support (Venezuela): Venezuela delivered 290,000 coffee seedlings to Anzoátegui growers, paired with field technical assistance on agroecological practices and pest control. Global Food Prices: FAO reported September’s food price index near a four-year high, driven by grains and sugar amid transport and climate disruptions. Regional Ag Responsibility (Guyana): Guyana framed Agriculture Month as a CARICOM food-security duty, pitching expanded production and inter-island trade links. Energy Costs for Farms: Diesel prices remain a pressure point for rural economies and farm operations as fuel policy debates continue.