AGP Executive Report

World Food Prices: FAO says its Food Price Index averaged 136.0 in September, up 1.5% from August, driven by weather shocks and transport disruptions that are already feeding into cereal, sugar and oil markets. El Niño Pressure: UN-linked reporting warns the “super El Niño” risk is rising across Latin America, with knock-on effects for yields and food security. Diesel Export Threat: Coverage flags that a potential U.S. diesel export ban could tighten global fuel supplies, raising costs that ripple into farm operations and food logistics. Guyana’s Regional Role: Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali argues the country has a regional responsibility to boost Caribbean food security, pointing to agro-processing hubs and better farm-to-market links. Brazil Ethanol Push: Brazil’s ethanol sector is looking beyond cars, with new demand eyed from ethanol-powered farm machinery plus aviation and maritime uses. Trade & Inputs: A Russia-Brazil study notes fertilizer trade growth is lagging politics, with China gaining ground as fertilizer supplier to Brazil—an input risk for regional agriculture. EU Ag Exports: Argentina’s EU agricultural exports reportedly jumped 21% after the Mercosur deal, signaling continued market momentum for farm goods.

Farm Policy Uncertainty (U.S.): The extended 2018 Farm Bill expired Wednesday, leaving farm support, conservation, nutrition, research and rural programs in limbo as Congress works on a replacement; the House has advanced its version while the Senate vote is still pending, with no fix expected for at least a month. Climate & Livestock Heat (Caribbean): Barbados poultry producers are urging farmers to reduce heat stress on chickens as extreme temperatures threaten productivity. Food Security & Trade Rules (G20): G20 ministers agreed it’s “not acceptable” to weaponize food and agriculture in conflicts, amid rising pressure on Black Sea shipping and agricultural exports. El Niño Risk (Latin America): UNICEF warns 25.8 million children across Latin America face El Niño-related risks. Ag Policy & Environment (Peru): Peru’s SENASA suspended glyphosate and other pesticides in plant foods. Regional Agriculture Links (Caribbean Week of Agriculture): Jamaica’s minister called for stronger intra-Caribbean trade and better air/sea links, cold storage and border processes to move food between markets. Coffee & Farmers (International Coffee Day): International Coffee Day spotlights Latin American smallholders and the push for fair pay.

Argentina Investment Push: President Javier Milei told European investors in Paris that Argentina offers “abundant energy” and a “competitive” agricultural sector, pitching mining and oil alongside legal certainty for investors during Argentina Week. Colombia Illicit Crops Policy: Colombia unveiled a pilot aerial glyphosate plan for coca eradication in Putumayo (up to 1,000 hectares), but local leaders warn communities fear past spraying impacts. Colombia Water vs. Mining: In Antioquia’s Jericó, an 87-year-old farmer has become a symbol of resistance against the Quebradona copper project, with protests centered on protecting water sources. Caribbean Ag Supply Chains: Massy Group sold its Caterpillar business in Trinidad and Tobago to Guyana’s MACORP, aiming to keep regional support for mining and agriculture customers. Peru Blueberries Surge: US imports of Peruvian blueberries jumped 80% in early 2026 as exports rose 65% in value to $620M, despite El Niño heat. Trade Facilitation: St. Kitts and Nevis advanced plans for a National Electronic Single Window to streamline cross-border trade and reduce paperwork burdens.

Antibiotics & Beef Trade: A new study says Argentina’s feedlots show widespread antibiotic misuse, including off-label and unrecorded use, with EU officials facing renewed pressure as EU beef imports from Argentina rise. Climate Risk for Farmers: El Niño-linked weather is worsening drought impacts across Latin America, with reports highlighting how extreme conditions are straining farm production and water access. Seed Security: CIMMYT shipped thousands of maize and wheat accessions to the Svalbard Global Seed Vault, expanding a genetic backup meant to help breeders respond to drought, heat, and disease. Caribbean Ag Finance: Jamaica’s ALEX platform has generated nearly $2B in sales since 2018 by linking small farmers to tourism buyers, aiming to scale consistent supply. Soybean Trade Signals: Reuters reports China’s weak feed demand and crush margins could reduce soybean purchases, with US soybeans excluded from tariff relief and more demand shifting to Brazil and Argentina.

Banana Disease Watch: Taiwan’s TR4 Panama disease threat is resurfacing fears for Cavendish bananas, with growers warning that even a 40% loss can wipe out a plantation’s value. Climate & Food Supply Risk: Heatwaves are already rewriting food supply rules, with extreme weather cutting yields and forcing ingredient sourcing shifts across the chain. Trade Tensions Ripple: The U.S. ban on nearly $1B in Canadian imports escalates a wider North American trade fight that can hit farm-linked sectors. USMCA Talks: Agricultural groups are pushing for USMCA renewal as U.S., Mexico, and Canada meet in Calgary to address disagreements and cooperation. Caribbean Food Security: CARICOM ministers call for a new financing model to cut the region’s food import bill and strengthen regional integration. EU-Mercosur Legal Setback: The EU’s top court rejected Poland’s bid to suspend the Mercosur trade deal, keeping pressure on EU farm competitiveness. Brazil Finance Tech: CSD BR and Ripple move asset tokenization forward in Brazil using the XRP Ledger to mirror securities records for transparency and auditing.

Caribbean Food Security Push: Caribbean agriculture ministers meeting in Jamaica urged a new regional financing and trade model, warning that more production won’t help unless farmers can move goods across borders with better logistics, cold chains, and border procedures. Venezuela Regenerative Shift: President Delcy Rodríguez backed regenerative agriculture and launched the Winter 2026 maize harvest plan, while also reaffirming support for the Venezuelan Community Coffee Plan with subsidized diesel, fertilizer financing, and plans for specialized labs. Peru El Niño Watch: Peru’s ENFEN raised the Coastal El Niño alert to 88%, warning of extraordinary intensity through January 2027 that could disrupt rainfall, rivers, and marine resources. Colombia Agrifood Investment: PepsiCo announced a US$1 billion, five-year investment in Colombia to expand production, modernize plants, and strengthen distribution, citing support for farmers and shopkeepers. Brazil Coffee Signals: Coffee prices swung with Brazil’s weaker real and dry conditions in key growing areas, as markets weigh weather risk against global supply expectations. EU Trade Legal Update: The EU’s top court rejected Poland’s bid to pause the EU–Mercosur trade agreement, keeping the bloc’s South America deal on track. Caribbean Agriculture Week Spotlight: Caribbean Week of Agriculture opened in Jamaica with youth awards and renewed focus on attracting young farmers and entrepreneurs.

Banana Supply Under Strain: U.S. banana availability is getting riskier as growers across Ecuador, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Colombia, Honduras, Peru, Mexico and others face extreme weather, rising costs, water stress, and worsening diseases—while El Niño could intensify disruption. Protected Agriculture Boost: A FAO technical mission in St. Kitts and Nevis wrapped up training to strengthen protected cultivation, focusing on nutrient management and integrated crop management to improve productivity and climate resilience. Caribbean Sargassum Response: St. Kitts and Nevis added two specialized DESMI workboats to improve monitoring and rapid response to sargassum influxes, with UNDP and Japan support. Cage-Free Egg Pressure: The Open Wing Alliance’s Fair and Fowl 2026 report says most major companies are meeting cage-free commitments, but a smaller group still lags. Tri-National Ag Talks: Canada, the U.S., and Mexico launched a Tri-National Agricultural Accord meeting in Calgary on animal disease, plant health, and rural development. Weather Watch: Hurricane Polo hit Baja California with life-threatening winds and flash flooding, with knock-on risks for regional agriculture and infrastructure.

Ag Tech in Brazil: FMC filed a regulatory dossier for rimisoxafen, a dual-mode herbicide, targeting resistant broadleaf weeds across Brazil’s corn and soybean belt. Precision Spraying in LatAm: Argentina’s DeepAgro partnered with Brazil’s Jacto to equip selective sprayers with AI leaf-reading tech that can cut crop-protection chemical use by up to 70%. Caribbean Food Security Push: Caribbean Week of Agriculture opened in Jamaica with a focus on food security, agri-business, climate-smart tech, and export expansion, as the region works to reduce its $13.7B food import bill. Trade Tensions and Farm Impacts: The US-China tariff framework trims duties on $30B of goods but leaves soybeans out, keeping pressure on soybean trade flows. Diesel Shock for Farmers: A potential US temporary diesel export ban is being weighed as prices near record levels; analysts warn it could ripple through Latin American transport and farming costs. Argentina Export Boom, Uneven Gains: A new analysis says Argentina’s export-led surge is lifting some provinces while more diversified regions lag behind. Belize Potato Prices: Vendors in Belize complain about high potato costs tied to limited import control, with prices far above nearby Mexico.

Pollinators Under Pressure: Iowa’s native bees and butterflies are losing prairie habitat as monocrops expand, raising alarms for pollination of both wild plants and some crops. El Niño Threat to Farms: The WMO says an unusually strong El Niño is building and could last into early 2027, with higher odds of drought and floods that can disrupt planting and yields. U.S.-China Farm Trade Twist: China plans tariff cuts on many U.S. farm goods, but soybeans are excluded, keeping a 10% extra tariff and adding uncertainty for soybean markets. Brazil Election and the Environment: Analysis says Lula-era Amazon protection likely avoided at least 20,000 km² of deforestation since 2022, with the Oct 4 vote seen as pivotal for future enforcement. Food Safety Turns Political: A major U.S. outbreak and meat recalls are fueling a “food fight” ahead of midterms, with voters increasingly worried about what’s safe to eat. Restoration for Food Security: FAO highlights forest and landscape restoration as a cost-effective way to strengthen agrifood systems, but warns scaling needs more investment and governance. Mexico Investment Push: Bankaool says Mexico’s supply-chain shifts and Plan México are opening opportunities, including in agriculture, and it’s pitching cross-border business links.

Agri-Input Outlook: A new report projects the aqua ammonia market to keep growing, reaching about $3.16B by 2030, driven by fertilizer production and water-treatment demand—signals for chemical inputs used across crop production. Agri-Investment in Colombia: PepsiCo says it will invest $1B in Colombia over five years to expand production, modernize operations, and strengthen distribution, aiming to support thousands of farmers and local shopkeepers. Biofuels & Farm Policy: The U.S. IRS issued 45Z biofuels guidance, including how to use the GREET model and field carbon-intensity tools—important for ethanol and other biofuel producers watching incentives. Energy Prices & Harvest Costs: Trump said he’s “very seriously” considering a U.S. diesel export ban, a move farm-state lawmakers have urged to protect fall harvest fuel costs, though industry groups warn of knock-on effects. Trade & Logistics: China’s Chancay–Shanghai route logged 170 voyages in Jan–Aug with cargo up 13.7%, boosting faster shipping links for Peru and potentially other Pacific-facing South American markets. Caribbean Food Systems: Jamaica’s Restaurants of Jamaica (KFC/Pizza Hut) pledged $1M to back the Caribbean Week of Agriculture, supporting regional food security and local supplier demand.

Climate Risk for Food Systems: Forecasters warn this year’s “super El Niño” could be among the strongest on record, with drought risk in parts of Asia and wider impacts that may worsen food insecurity across Central America and other vulnerable regions. Banana Trade Update: FAO data shows the Philippines rebounded to become the world’s No. 2 banana exporter in 2025, shipping 3M metric tons after recovery from Fusarium wilt TR4 and other disruptions. Caribbean Recovery & Tourism: Jamaica says it has restored about 70% of hotel inventory after Hurricane Melissa, with remaining rooms expected back in early 2027—an indirect boost for farm-to-table demand and local supply chains. Policy & Land Use Tension: South Korea’s farmland audit plan sparks political pushback, highlighting how land rules can quickly become a flashpoint for agriculture and rural livelihoods. Trade Deal With Ag Implications: Brazil formally incorporated the Mercosur-EFTA free trade agreement, setting tariff changes that could reshape market access for agricultural exporters. Mexico Corn Culture: A corn fair in Mexico City spotlights traditional corn varieties, seed displays, and local agricultural products. Cameroon Bananas & EU Support: Cameroon’s banana sector received €48.1M in EU assistance over 2013-2024, aimed at boosting competitiveness as tariff preferences eroded. Brazil–EFTA Timing: The agreement’s start dates (Oct 1 for Brazil/Iceland; Nov 1 for Norway) set a near-term calendar for exporters planning shipments. Mexico–US Ag Context: Mexico’s corn fair comes as broader regional weather and trade pressures keep corn and feed markets in focus.

Argentina Grain Windfall: Argentina’s Rosario grains exchange projects a near-record farm export windfall in 2027, with about USD 40B in export dollars as global supply shocks lift corn, wheat and soy shipments. Energy & Food Costs: Caribbean islands are feeling fuel-price pressure—St. Lucia’s electricity fuel surcharge jumped to 35.6 cents/kWh for September, while Antigua and Barbuda saw gasoline and diesel rise after higher import costs. Drought/El Niño Risk: FAO warns funding gaps are leaving millions exposed as El Niño intensifies, with weather and price shocks threatening food security. Venezuela Food Distribution: President Delcy Rodríguez toured Petare’s El Gran San Blas Commune, highlighting progress in agricultural production and food distribution via open-air markets. Jamaica Tourism Deal Scrutiny: Jamaica’s tourism ministry is seeking clarity on a US$3B Sandals–Royal Caribbean partnership, including impacts on local workers and farm supply links. Agri-Trade & Logistics: Diesel export restrictions are back in the spotlight, with analysts warning higher trucking costs could feed into grocery prices across the region. Banana Sector Watch: FAO data shows the Philippines rebounded to become the world’s No. 2 banana exporter in 2025, underscoring how disease recovery can quickly reshape global supply.

Bolivia’s Economic Turn: Bolivia’s government says it’s “open for business” after rejecting socialism, highlighting higher central bank reserves and a push for private enterprise—an angle that matters for agriculture investment and food production planning. Brazil Cost-of-Living Politics: In São Paulo, rising food prices are eroding support for Lula ahead of next month’s election, with voters saying household budgets can’t keep up—pressure that can spill into demand for staples and farmgate prices. El Niño Food Supply Stress: Chefs across Latin America are already adapting menus as El Niño disrupts sourcing of crops and seafood, a reminder that weather-driven shocks can quickly hit regional agriculture and supply chains. Diesel Export Threats: Coverage on potential U.S. diesel export restrictions flags knock-on effects for trucks and farm equipment—fuel costs remain a direct risk to planting, harvest, and logistics. Fungi for Space Farming: Researchers in the U.S. and Brazil are exploring beneficial fungi to help grow crops in lunar and Martian soil, pointing to new ways to think about nutrient-poor conditions on Earth too.

UN Food Funding Gap: The UN says it has received only about one-fifth of the $202M it requested to prepare for El Niño-driven food crises in 22 high-risk countries, limiting drought and flood mitigation across parts of Latin America and the Caribbean. Climate Risk: Scientists warn “Super Niño” 2026-2027 could be among the most intense in decades, with major impacts expected well beyond the peak months. Agrifood Policy & Trade: Mexico and South Korea adopted a 2026-2030 joint action plan covering cooperation in science, technology, agriculture, and public security. Farm Inputs & Costs: Diesel prices are hitting record highs, raising costs for trucking, harvest logistics, and food distribution—an issue that can ripple into regional ag supply chains. Research & Innovation: USDA opened public comment on a genetically engineered cotton variety petition from Bayer Crop Science, aimed at improving pest resistance and potentially reducing insecticide use. Regional Ag Cooperation: CARICOM-India talks highlighted agriculture and food security, with a push to turn commitments into on-the-ground results. Agritourism Push: Airbnb and American Farmland Trust offer grants up to $10,000 for farm stays, aiming to diversify farm income through agritourism.

Climate Risk: Researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab warn the “Super El Niño” could drive about 6,500 extra heat-related deaths in the Philippines from September 2026 to February 2027, with global impacts reaching hundreds of thousands. Trade & Food Supply: Russia extended its ban on imports of certain Western agricultural and food products through 2028, including fruit and vegetables, keeping pressure on cross-border produce flows. Livestock & Markets: The U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee advanced mandatory country-of-origin labeling for beef, a move that could reshape compliance and trade dynamics for cattle supply chains. Agri-Food Innovation: Mexico’s Bendito Mar became the first mollusc farm in the country to join the Aquaculture Stewardship Council’s improver program, aiming to improve practices while supporting coastal ecosystems. Regional Business Links: Amcham T&T welcomed talks between Trinidad and Tobago’s PM Kamla Persad-Bissessar and Venezuela’s Delcy Rodríguez, highlighting potential cooperation that includes agriculture.

Climate Shock for Farms: New research warns “Super El Niño” could drive major heat impacts, with the Philippines projected to see about 6,500 extra heat-related deaths from Sept. 2026 to Feb. 2027—an ominous signal for farm labor, yields, and water stress across the region. US–China Ag Signals: U.S. soybean growers are watching the Trump-Xi trade track closely after a truce extension through January 2027, but they want clarity on longer-term purchases and tariff barriers that could also swing demand away from Brazil and South America. Food Security Push: Venezuela told the UN it has cut food insecurity to about 5.3%, linking progress to stronger domestic production, agri-food systems, and social protection—while urging removal of unilateral coercive measures. Market Watch: Soybeans drift lower as traders wait for more concrete China outcomes; corn and wheat also soften amid weather and export-sales uncertainty. Agri-Trade Deals: Argentina and the UAE announced talks toward a CEPA, explicitly flagging agribusiness among priority sectors for expanded investment and market access.