AGP Executive Report

Soy Trade Pulse: China bought about 1 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this week (plus another 340,000 tons reported by USDA), with shipments slated for Dec–Feb as Brazil supplies tighten and the U.S. harvest nears. Agro-Climate Watch: NOAA says El Niño is intensifying faster than expected, with Argentina on alert for heavier rains and flood risk in major river basins. Pesticide Shift: Farmers are exploring alternatives to pesticides, pushing “spraying should be the last option” approaches. Food Prices: FAO’s Food Price Index rose in August, warning that climate shocks and trade disruptions are lifting the risk premium for global staples. Colombia Security & Crops: Colombia’s coca aerial spraying plan faces a judge’s halt in Putumayo amid health worries, while drones are increasingly used in the conflict. Mexico Crime Tech: Reuters reports a suspected cartel-linked crypto mining farm in Puebla, raising concerns about stolen electricity and financial crime. BRICS for Agriculture: Modi highlighted BRICS initiatives including agro-ecology and regenerative agriculture centers, plus logistics and early-warning systems for health threats.

Agri-Finance in Panama: CAF and Panama’s National Bank signed a $500M financing line to back SMEs, with 50% earmarked for rural areas and the agricultural and agro-industrial sector. Venezuela Farm Output Push: President Delcy Rodríguez toured a coffee roasting facility and said animal production rose 5.14%, vegetable output 2.26%, and overall agricultural growth exceeded 5% this year, while also highlighting cooperation with Suriname for fishing. BRICS Grain Exchange: BRICS leaders in New Delhi backed work on a BRICS grain trading platform, aiming to support food security and reduce price swings and supply disruptions, including fertilizer shortages. Mexico Food Safety Link: The CDC said the cyclosporiasis outbreak tied to iceberg lettuce (from Taylor Farms in Mexico) is over, with 12,883 cases across 21 states. Cattle Health Watch (U.S.-Mexico border): New World screwworm spread has slowed in Southwest Texas; Uvalde and Medina are “more than likely” next for updated infested-zone drops. Venezuela Power Strain: AFP reports residents in western states say electricity is being diverted to Caracas, worsening outages outside the capital.

Food Safety Fallout: The CDC declared the record U.S. cyclosporiasis outbreak over after nearly 12,900 illnesses tied to processed iceberg lettuce sourced from central Mexico by Taylor Farms, with the FDA still probing how contamination entered the supply chain. Drug Policy & Rural Impacts: Colombia is restarting limited aerial spraying tests to eradicate coca, using a different herbicide than in past programs, but a judge in Putumayo has temporarily halted the pilot over health and environmental concerns. Agri-Trade & Market Pressure: Brazil beef exports hit record value and volumes in the first half of the year, while U.S. policy moves on cattle and meat imports keep ripple effects on prices and processing capacity in focus. Organized Crime Meets Finance: Mexican authorities uncovered a cartel-linked crypto mining operation in the mountains of Puebla, highlighting how criminal groups are diversifying into financial crime. Regional Climate Risk: El Niño warnings are again raising alarms for food security across Latin America, with drought and production stress expected to hit vulnerable farmers.

Sugar Spike & Climate Supply Risks: Chinese sugar firms Hongmian and COFCO Sugar jumped as global raw sugar futures surged on fears of lower EU beet output, weaker India and a projected 20% Thailand drop. Food Security Pressure: FAO’s Food Price Index rose 1.9% in August, with adverse weather, geopolitics and trade disruptions pushing costs up. BRICS Agritrade Push: South Africa’s Agri SA and Agbiz urged deeper, more predictable agriculture trade across BRICS, including fewer barriers and climate-smart cooperation. Peru-U.S. Security Pact: Peru will join the U.S.-led “Shield of the Americas” coalition, aiming to speed cross-border intelligence against cartels—an indirect risk factor for rural stability and supply chains. Cyclospora Update: U.S. officials are expected to declare the Cyclospora outbreak over soon, after cases tied to Mexico-linked produce. Water for Farmers: Mexico’s Mexicali Valley faces reduced deliveries under a new U.S.-Mexico Colorado River pact. Livestock Biosecurity: Texas A&M mapped a soft tick that could affect African swine fever preparedness if the virus reaches the U.S. Monarch Conservation: Kansas’ Monarch Highway tagging and habitat efforts continue, linking roadside restoration to Mexico roost recovery data.

Venezuela–Kazakhstan Coffee Push: Venezuela showcased its exportable coffee supply at Astana Coffee Expo (Sept. 3–5), using the event to open direct trade routes and diversify beyond oil. Security & Trade Pressure: The U.S. expanded its “foreign terrorist organization” list to 21 Latin American and Caribbean groups, adding an Ecuadorian group and intensifying counternarcotics pressure across the region. Colombia Coca Eradication Update: Colombia approved a pilot aerial coca eradication test using glufosinate ammonium instead of glyphosate, with limits on area and protections for environmental and Indigenous/Afro-Colombian zones. El Niño Weather Watch: NOAA says there’s a 90%+ chance of a strong El Niño in Oct–Dec, raising odds of wetter, stormier conditions in California. Argentina Ag Exports: Argentina reported record agro exports for Jan–Jul 2026, reaching 4.37M tons worth US$5.757B. Mexico–U.S. Border Ag Logistics: CPKC launched a U.S.–Mexico customs solution aimed at speeding ag shipments. Food Safety: U.S. officials are expected to declare the end of the Cyclospora outbreak tied to iceberg lettuce, linked to Mexico-based supply.

El Niño & planting decisions: Brazilian soybean growers are starting the 2026/27 cycle while weighing rising costs and an El Niño forecast that could bring above-average rain to the South, pushing farmers to lean harder on soil care and productivity to protect margins. Argentina crop outlook: Argentina’s Rosario exchange cut its 2026/27 soybean harvest estimate to 47.8M tons as corn margins pull acreage, while lifting wheat output to 21M tons on good early conditions. China demand for soybeans: Traders say China bought about 1M metric tons of U.S. soybeans ahead of Xi’s U.S. visit, supporting grain futures and tightening global oilseed supply expectations. Biosecurity push in Brazil’s pig sector: ABPA launched a biosecurity awareness campaign urging stricter farm access controls, hygiene, and traffic management to defend Brazil’s disease-free status. Food supply chain tech: The IQF fruit market is projected to grow to $8.3B by 2034 as quick-freezing helps Latin American producers ship more year-round with less post-harvest loss. Deforestation risk in Paraguay charcoal: A Global Witness investigation links UK charcoal brand Big K’s Paraguayan supply chain to deforestation in the Gran Chaco, raising pressure on enforcement of anti-deforestation rules. Climate heat stress: An AFP analysis using Copernicus data reports the hottest June–August on record for 1.3B people, with El Niño already contributing to extreme heat and drought impacts across parts of Central America and northern South America.

Wolf and ranching policy: Trump’s Sept. 4 executive order directs federal agencies to review whether gray wolves and Mexican gray wolves can be delisted or downlisted, a move Colorado ranching and farm groups say could shift how wolves are managed and protect cattle herds. Trade war pressure on agriculture: The U.S.-Canada tariff fight is escalating with bans on Canadian dairy, alcohol and other goods, while Canada retaliates with tariffs on U.S. dairy inputs—raising fresh uncertainty for farmgate prices and supply chains. El Niño hits food costs in Colombia: Colombia’s El Niño drought and wildfires are disrupting crop supply and pushing prices up sharply, with some staples rising as much as 60% in recent weeks. Soybeans and corn markets: China’s soybean buying is favoring Brazil due to tariffs on U.S. soybeans, while corn and soy futures move with harvest pressure and expectations for upcoming USDA data. Invasive pest threat: St. Vincent and the Grenadines is stepping up efforts to eradicate the Giant African Snail to protect agriculture. Digital push for farmers: UNDP’s Africa Accelerator mission to India focused on digital public infrastructure tools for agriculture, including farmer platforms and digital identity/payment systems.

Labor Rights Spotlight: A Texas Tribune report highlights how North Carolina farmworkers in H-2A camps live in largely hidden conditions, with limited visibility for health and legal support. Trade Shock for Food: The U.S. bans a wide range of Canadian booze, motorcycles and dairy starting Sept. 29, escalating a tariff fight that also threatens US farm and food supply chains. Argentina Ag Output: Argentina’s manufacturing fell 5% in July vs June, with farm machinery production down 46.6% year-on-year—an early read-through for agricultural equipment demand. Grains Trade: Argentina’s corn exports are set for a record 10 million tons in Aug–Sep, boosted by bumper harvest and demand as buyers look past disrupted Ukraine supplies. Meat Markets: Brazil’s chicken exports rose while beef shipments fell sharply as China’s lower-tariff quota for Brazilian beef ran out. Climate Risk to Food: The WFP warns El Niño could push tens of millions more people into acute food insecurity across Latin America and beyond by end-2027. Forestry & Jobs: Paraguay’s Expo Madera 2026 spotlights forestry growth, innovation and employment potential.

Global Food Prices: The UN FAO says August food prices jumped to the highest since late 2022, driven by heat and drought, Black Sea shipping disruptions, and El Niño fears—pushing grain and sugar higher and cutting its 2026 cereal output forecast. Venezuela Cocoa Resilience: IDEA Foundation researchers are testing biostimulant microbes and improved agronomic management to protect rain-fed cacao from pests and El Niño-linked rainfall swings. Mexico Land Restoration: CONAFOR reports Mexico’s degraded-land program hit 1 million hectares, with average plant survival rising from 33% to 64% after linking funding to technical support and local participation. Trade Tensions Hit Farms: Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods took effect, with Wisconsin dairy and paper among the targets—raising costs and threatening rural economies. Beef Policy Crossroads (US): A new U.S. review of country-of-origin labeling for beef is reigniting producer-consumer debate as trade and import pressure continue. Caribbean Food Security: Barbados and Venezuela agreed to expand cooperation in energy and food security, including new market openings for farmers and fishers.

Trade Shock for Agri-Food: Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on about $20bn of U.S. goods (15%–50%) kick in, hitting sectors that include dairy and agricultural equipment—raising costs and uncertainty for farmers and ag manufacturers caught in the U.S.-Canada fight. Brazil Poultry Supply: Brazil’s domestic chicken meat supply hit its highest level since Q4 2025, with Cepea estimating about 3.7 million tons for Q4 2026 as production holds steady. El Niño and Food Risks: Reports warn a strengthening El Niño could worsen drought and extreme weather, with knock-on effects for crops and food availability across Latin America. Sugar Market Pressure: China is expected to slow sugar imports as global supply tightens and prices rise, with Thailand’s output forecast to drop sharply due to El Niño dryness—reverberating through regional sugar supply chains. Sustainability Tech for Exports: A Cardano-backed traceability system is live for Brazilian fashion exporters to help meet EU deforestation rules, anchoring hundreds of thousands of supply-chain records.

El Niño Food Shock Watch: The UN’s weather agency warns the current El Niño could be the strongest on record, with knock-on effects already linked to deaths in Chile and drought emergencies across Central America—raising the odds of tighter supplies and higher prices. Commodity Pulse: Cocoa prices keep climbing for a sixth straight month as El Niño-linked weather risk and easing West Africa drought concerns support recovery, while broader ag markets move with geopolitical and climate disruptions (wheat, corn, soybeans, rice, sugar). Colombia Power Plan: Colombia’s government is rolling out preemptive measures to protect electricity supplies as El Niño threatens reservoirs and rivers, including incentives to curb household consumption during the dry season. Water & Fertilizer Insight: A new study finds irrigation water can deliver significant “hidden” nitrogen to croplands—potentially cutting synthetic fertilizer needs and pollution if farmers account for it. Venezuela–Vietnam Ag Cooperation: Venezuela’s Delcy Rodríguez highlighted new and ongoing cooperation with Vietnam in areas including rice planting and agriculture as diplomatic ties deepen. BRICS Tech for Agriculture: BRICS cooperation is increasingly framed around practical development needs, including how AI and other tools can support rural services and resilience. Trade-Tariff Pressure: The US-Canada tariff fight is spilling into broader North American supply chains, with knock-on risks for logistics and costs that can reach agricultural inputs and markets.

Patagonia Data Centers: Argentina’s wind-and-gas region is being pitched to AI hyperscalers for massive data centers, betting on cool temperatures, renewables and shale power—while local communities and energy firms weigh the tradeoffs. Global Food Systems: A Bhutan summit is pushing a “values-first” rethink of food systems as climate shocks, inequality and biodiversity loss collide. Commodity Pressure: Cocoa keeps climbing for a sixth month on El Niño-driven West Africa supply worries, while wheat, corn and rice also rise amid Black Sea disruption and weather risks. Soybean Squeeze in China: China’s private soybean crushers face tighter supplies and weaker margins as Brazil inventories tighten and US tariffs limit access, with processors watching for tariff relief. Beef Policy Shockwaves (US): New US executive orders aim to lower beef prices and expand rancher processing, but the wolf-management and labeling moves could reshape livestock operations and costs. Ecuador Shrimp Growth: Ecuador’s shrimp industry is expanding faster and scaling up production, signaling continued momentum for regional seafood exports. Paraguay Investment Push: Paraguay is drawing more foreign capital across services and manufacturing, with agriculture and forestry still in the mix as investors diversify.

Beef Trade Shock: Trump’s order to temporarily expand foreign beef access is already rattling U.S. cattle producers, with Minnesota ranchers warning lower fed-cattle prices could squeeze thin margins. Wolf Protection Review: A new U.S. executive order directs Interior to assess gray wolf and Mexican wolf recovery for possible delisting/downlisting within 90 days, a move ranchers back but conservation groups call a dangerous rollback. El Niño Watch: Forecasts say El Niño will intensify into 2027, raising extreme-weather risk that can hit planting, yields, and food prices across Latin America. Global Food Prices: FAO reports global food prices at the highest level since 2022, driven by war and weather disruptions. Brazil EU Meat Fallout: EU suspensions of Brazilian meat imports over antibiotic concerns keep trade pressure on Mercosur exporters. Plantain Demand: A Colombian entrepreneur is expanding a plantain-focused restaurant concept in Utah, betting on Latin staples for mainstream diners. Water & Land Stress: Research highlights how nutrient pollution can linger for years in soils and waterways, worsening algal blooms and water-quality strain.

Food Safety Pressure: A summer wave of recalls is exposing weak spots in the U.S. food safety net, with experts pointing to wider, harder-to-trace outbreaks tied to earlier steps in the supply chain. Caribbean Fisheries & Security: U.S. airstrikes in the Caribbean have left local fishermen fearing for their lives, raising questions about how coastal communities are affected by anti-cartel operations. Beef Trade & Ranch Support: Trump signed executive orders aimed at ranchers after a beef import backlash, including moves on country-of-origin labeling and changes to inspection/processing rules that could reshape meat market access. El Niño Risk: The World Meteorological Organization warns El Niño is likely to strengthen and persist into 2027, increasing extreme weather risk for agriculture across the region. Small-Scale Fisheries Focus: FAO hosted a summit on small-scale fisheries, highlighting their role in food security and livelihoods and pushing for stronger implementation of sustainability guidelines. Mexico Avocado Economy: In western Mexico, avocado wealth is intertwined with violence and insecurity, as families describe how the crop changed local life.

EU Trade Tensions: Brazil says it has made “progress” to resume poultry and honey exports to the EU after an audit, while the EU remains focused on antimicrobial compliance after suspending Brazilian animal-product imports. Global Food Prices: The FAO reports world food prices hit their highest level since late 2022, driven by weather shocks, Black Sea disruptions, and rising sugar and cereal costs. El Niño Pressure: A strengthening “Super El Niño” raises risks of drought and extreme heat, with knock-on effects expected for crops and grocery staples across the Americas. Beef Policy Fallout: New U.S. executive actions aim to boost cattle and lower beef prices, but critics warn wolf-protection rollbacks and tariff-linked import moves could backfire for ranchers and conservation. Biosecurity at the Border: A Reuters investigation highlights how illegal horse trafficking across the Texas–Mexico border can bypass veterinary checks, raising concerns as New World screwworm risk returns. Water & Soil Practices: Iowa’s cover-crop push expands with cost-share support, but critics argue voluntary programs won’t fix water problems without stronger rules.

Global Food Prices: The FAO Food Price Index rose 1.9% in August to its highest level since late 2022, driven by extreme weather, war-related supply disruptions, and trade-logistics problems; sugar jumped 11.9% and cereals climbed 2.2%, keeping pressure on import-dependent buyers across Latin America. Beef Trade & Policy: In the U.S., President Trump signed orders to lower beef prices by temporarily expanding lower-tariff imports of ground beef, naming Argentina and Brazil as key sources, while also pushing tougher enforcement on meatpackers and moves to boost ranchers’ market access. Brazil–EU Meat Dispute: EU restrictions on Brazilian animal products remain a major trade flashpoint, with Brazil signaling possible reciprocal measures as exporters face compliance hurdles and uncertainty over when shipments can resume. Peru–China Fruit Route: Peruvian bananas made a milestone debut in China via the Chancay–Shanghai shipping route, with the first 19.6 tons clearing customs—an efficiency boost that could strengthen fresh-fruit exports for the region. El Niño Watch: The WMO warns the current El Niño could become the strongest on record, raising risks of droughts and heavy rains that threaten crop yields and livestock production throughout Latin America. Food Safety Pressure: A major cyclosporiasis outbreak in the U.S. has been linked to iceberg lettuce grown in central Mexico, highlighting how farm-to-shelf failures can quickly spill into regional trade and consumer trust.